Cajun Sports

The Friars are on the road in the ATL playing a four-game set against the host Braves. San Diego just got swept at home by the Colorado Rockies. The change of scenery must have done the Friars some good as they took Game One on Friday night winning 3 to 1 over the Braves. The Braves will look to bounce back tonight but there is value on the Friars in this situation. The Padres will send their ace to the mound in Yu Darvish and his record of 3-1 SU and an ERA of 2.43 on the season. Darvish has been dominant of late. He has not allowed a single earned run in this last three starts which spanned seventeen innings of work. The Padres have won the last five games Darvish has started while also going 6-2 overall on the year with him on the mound. The Braves will send Bryce Elder to the bump with his 1-1 SU record and an ERA of 4.79 on the year. Elder has been getting hit hard, allowing a .317 batting average to opposing batters. The TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.58 runs. The SPMatrix has Yu Darvish with an average of 7.73 compared to Bryce Elder who has an average of 5.02. Our next set of metrics looks at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Darvish has a rating of 128 while Elder has a rating of only 97 with the league average of 100. The SIM Matrix has the San Diego Padres with a 73.94 percent advantage against the Braves in tonight’s contest. Atlanta is only sixteenth in the league in homeruns and fourteenth in total runs scored. San Diego has fared better offensively, ranking ninth in home runs and seventh in run production. The value is with the Friars and Darvish tonight as they take Game Two and a commanding 2-0 lead in this series.

The Indiana Pacers return home off an embarrassing blowout loss in Gotham in Game Five. They will look to even the series once again against the Knicks with a win tonight in Indy. New York’s offense is averaging 110.6 points in their eleven postseason games. They are shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from three-point range. New York had a massive advantage on the glass in Tuesday’s win, outrebounding the Pacers, 53 to 29. They have gotten to 44.9 rebounds per game in the playoffs. The Knicks defense allows 110 points per game while opponents have shot 47.2 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from beyond the arc against them this postseason. For the Pacers the 91 points they scored in Game Five were their fewest for them in the playoffs as they’ve averaged a league-best 112.6 points in eleven games. They are shooting 49 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from three-point range. On the defensive end, they were only able to force eight turnovers out of the Knicks while they turned the ball over eighteen times themselves. Indiana’s defense has given up 111.6 points per game in the playoffs while teams have shot 47.4 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from beyond the arc against them. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 11.58 points. The MM projects a point differential of +6.12 in the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.98 with a transitional average of 43.21 and a projected conversion rate range advantage of 5.4 percent for the Pacers. The SIM Matrix has the Indiana Pacers with a 73.99 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. NBA teams coming off a loss in a second-round series game and playing at home have bounced back with a record of 21-11 ATS (66%). Play AGAINST NBA underdogs in this price range after a win by ten or more points after trailing in their previous game by fifteen or more points at the half, 40-16 ATS (71%). We are going to lay the chalk with the home team as the Pacers get a big win here as force a Game Seven in Gotham

The Seattle Mariners make the long trip east for the start of a ten-game road trip. Their first stop on the trip will be in Baltimore with Game One on Friday night. The Mariners are in first place in the AL West with a record of 24-20 SU 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers. The Orioles are one of the best teams in baseball with a 27-14 SU record, but in the AL East that only places them in second behind a Yankees team that has a record of 30-15 SU on the season. The Mariners will send Bryce Miller to the bump with his 3-3 SU record and an ERA of 2.66 this season. This is his third start against the Orioles. Last season, he allowed four earned runs in ten innings in two starts against Baltimore. The Orioles did win both starts by a combined score of 11 to 7. The Orioles will send Cole Irvin to the mound with his 4-1 SU record and an ERA of 2.90 on the season. Since getting off to a slow start, Irvin has allowed just two earned runs in his last four starts. In his last start against Arizona last Friday, he gave up two runs in 5.2 innings. Irvin faced the Mariners once last season and went 5.2 innings without allowing a run. Although he didn't earn a decision in the contest. The TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.63 runs. The SPMatrix has Cole Irvin with an average of 7.21 compared to Bryce Miller who has an average of 5.19. Our next set of metrics looks at the overall Pitchers Power Ratings. Coming into this game and situation Irving has a rating of 124 while Millers has a rating of only 101 with the league average of 100. The SIM Matrix has the Baltimore Orioles with a 73.92 percent advantage against the oddsmakers number in tonight’s contest. Play ON MLB home favorite during the regular season coming off a win in which they allowed six or fewer hits and it did not end a three or more-game losing streak, 3959-2539 SU (61%)(+$4,680). Play ON MLB home favorites when they are coming off a SU win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs, 204-115 SU (64%)(+$2,568). We are going to lay the chalk with he Orioles as they take a very important win in Game One of this series.

The Mavericks are on the road for Game Five of their series with the Thunder Wednesday night. Following their come from behind victory 100 to 96 in Game Four the Thunder have regained the momentum in this series. Our numbers tell us they will get the win in Game Five tonight. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 10.66 points. The MM projects a point differential of +6.0 in the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.73 with a transitional average of 43.4 and a projected conversion rate range advantage of 4.1 percent for the Thunder. The SIM Matrix has the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 73.97 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. The Mavericks are just not the same team with an injured Doncic. They have tried to use Kyrie Irving to offset the absence of a healthy Doncic but its just not the same. Plus, the Thunder have made an adjustment in Game Four when it comes to defending Doncic. Using Lu Dort as his primary defender certainly made a difference in Game 4. Doncic finished the night shooting a dismal 6-of-20 from the field. Now its not likely that a player of Doncic’s ability will have another night like that, but he is not 100 percent and Lu Dort will have the confidence from his Game Four performance which should hold Doncic to a manageable number tonight. Play ON NBA Teams as a home favorite after a game on the road in which they shot less than 40% from the field, 245-192-7 ATS (56%). Play AGAINST NBA road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered at least 4 of their last 6 against the spread, in a game involving two teams with a win percentage of 60 to 75 percent, 55-25 ATS (69%). Play AGAINST NBA road teams after going under the total by fifty-four or more points total in their last ten games, in a game involving two good teams with a win percentage of 60 to 75 percent, 45-19 ATS (70%). We are going to lay the short price with the home team as the Thunder take a 3 to 2 series lead with a win and cover tonight in OKC

Game Five of their best-of-seven series gets underway Tuesday night in Madison Square Garden as the Pacers and Knicks are all tied up at two wins apiece. The home team has held serve in this matchup and we look for the Knicks to bounce back after that embarrassing loss in Indy their last time out. Game four was the anomaly so far in this series. The Knicks couldn't buy a basket, the Pacers couldn't miss, with New York struggling from the opening tip. On the road and playing in front of a raucous crowd the Pacers will find it difficult to repeat their performance from the last game. That type and level of momentum will not come easy away from home. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 7.89 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.85 in the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.16 with a transitional average of 42.94 and a projected conversion rate range of 47.6 to 49.3 percent. The SIM Matrix has the NY Knicks with a 73.98 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Even with all the injuries the Knicks will continue their solid play at MSG tonight. Play ON NBA Teams as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which they shot less than 40 percent from the field, 151-88-4 ATS (63%) including 31-8 ATS (80%) L39. We are going to back the home team in Gotham on Tuesday night as they take a 3 to 2 lead back to Indy for Game Six.

The boys from Gotham are on the road in the Twin Cities for a midweek series. Both teams are playing well right now with the Twins winners in seventeen of their past twenty games, including a series win against the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend. New York has won eight of their last eleven contests. They have won each of their last three series, most recently taking two out of three games on the road against the Boys from Cigar City. The Yankees qualify in one of our super situations that has the Yankees in a positive momentum situation after taking the series from the Rays. This situation has a record of 23-6 SU (79.3%). It calls for a play ON the New York Yankees tonight. The Twins will send Chris Paddack to the bump with his 4-1 SU record and his ERA of 4.34 on the season. Paddack’s’ weakness has been his slider (.373 xwOBA) and changeup (.399 xwOBA) and against this powerful Yankees lineup that could be a major problem for the Twins hurler in this one. The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon who is 3-2 SU with an ERA of 3.56 on the year. Rodon is looking for back-to-back victories after limiting the Houston Astros to two runs on seven hits in 6 1/3 innings of work in his most recent outing. On the season, Rodon has walked fourteen batters and struck out forty-three in forty-three innings. Rodon has produced a quality start in three of his last four starts. The TPR Index projects a run advantage of 1.52 runs in favor of the Yankees. The SIM Matrix has the New York Yankees with a 73.97 percent advantage in tonight’s contest. Play AGAINST MLB AL home teams batting .265 or worse with a bullpen that has an ERA of .333 or better against a team hitting .280 or better over their last twenty games, 37-18 SU (67%). Play AGAINST any MLB AL team hitting 265 or worse with a bullpen that has an ERA of .333 or better against a team hitting .280 or better over their last twenty games, 31-12 SU (72%). We are going to play the Yankees in this value spot as they take a Game One win against the host Twins.